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Centuri Holdings, Inc. (CTRI)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Revenue beat with record $0.850B, up 18.1% YoY, and above S&P consensus ($0.758B*) while adjusted EBITDA of $75.2M missed consensus ($85.2M*); adjusted EPS was $0.19 vs $0.29* (beat on top-line, miss on profitability) .
  • Guidance: FY2025 revenue raised to $2.80–$2.90B; FY2025 adjusted EBITDA lowered to $240–$250M due to reduced storm work; net capex maintained at $75–$90M .
  • Bookings of $815M in Q3 drove record backlog to ~$5.9B and YTD book-to-bill of 1.8x; pipeline ~$13B with near-term bids and MSA renewals supporting double-digit base growth into 2026 .
  • Equity financing after the print: $160M public offering priced and $75M Icahn-affiliated private placement, de-risking funding for growth and potential debt repayment (near-term dilution sentiment risk) .
  • Key call drivers: non-union electric margins compressed on ramping crews but improving into Q4; leverage expected to fall to ~3.3–3.4x by year-end on seasonal FCF .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record quarterly revenue $850.0M (+18.1% YoY), with broad-based segment growth (Canadian Gas +38.7%, Union Electric +25.0%, Non-Union Electric +15.6%, U.S. Gas +12.7%) .
  • Base metrics strengthened: Base Revenue $848.6M (+25%) and Base Gross Profit $77.6M (+28%), with base gross margin up to 9.1% (from 8.9%)—management emphasized focus on fundamental operations excluding storm volatility .
  • Commercial momentum: $815M bookings in Q3; backlog ~$5.9B (up from $5.3B last quarter); pipeline ~$13B with 600+ strategic bids, including data center campuses and PHMSA Mega Rule-driven gas projects; CEO: “line of sight to double-digit revenue growth in 2026” .

What Went Wrong

  • Profitability mixed: adjusted EBITDA $75.2M declined YoY (vs $78.8M) and missed S&P consensus ($85.2M*), reflecting less storm revenue and ramp costs; consolidated gross margin fell to 9.2% (from 10.5%) .
  • Non-Union Electric margins compressed to 7.1% (from 16.6%) due to crew ramp and lack of high-margin storm work; base gross margin in the segment fell to 7.1% (from 8.7%) .
  • Leverage ticked to 3.8x (from 3.7x) on working capital timing; free cash flow was negative in Q3 ($16.3M) with normalization expected in Q4 .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025Q3 2025 Consensus*
Revenue ($USD Millions)$720.053 $724.052 $850.044 $758.472*
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$75.793 $67.801 $77.960 —
Gross Margin %10.5% 9.4% 9.2% —
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$78.761 $71.840 $75.213 $85.175*
Adjusted EBITDA Margin %10.9% 9.9% 8.8% —
Net Income ($USD Millions)$(3.617) $8.079 $2.114 —
Diluted EPS (GAAP $USD)$(0.04) $0.09 $0.02 —
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.06 $0.19 $0.19 $0.293*

Segment revenue (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024):

Segment Revenue ($USD Millions)Q3 2024Q3 2025YoY %
U.S. Gas$366.070 $412.407 +12.7%
Canadian Gas$53.473 $74.153 +38.7%
Union Electric$171.666 $214.499 +25.0%
Non-Union Electric$128.844 $148.985 +15.6%
Consolidated$720.053 $850.044 +18.1%

Segment gross profit (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024):

Segment Gross Profit ($USD Millions) and Margin %Q3 2024Q3 2025
U.S. Gas$27.960 (7.6%) $31.650 (7.7%)
Canadian Gas$10.969 (20.5%) $16.218 (21.9%)
Union Electric$15.427 (9.0%) $19.490 (9.1%)
Non-Union Electric$21.437 (16.6%) $10.602 (7.1%)
Consolidated$75.793 (10.5%) $77.960 (9.2%)

KPIs and balance sheet:

KPIQ2 2025Q3 2025
Quarterly bookings ($USD Millions)~$1,800 ~$815
Backlog ($USD Billions)~$5.3 ~$5.9
YTD book-to-bill (x)2.3x (H1) 1.8x (through Q3)
Sales pipeline ($USD Billions)~14 ~13
Net debt ($USD Millions)$909.6 $928.5
Net debt / TTM adj. EBITDA (x)3.7x 3.8x
Cash & equivalents ($USD Millions)$28.3 $16.1
Revolver (size/maturity)$450M / 2030 $450M / 2030 (reconfirmed)
Term Loan B (maturity)2032 2032, improved rate

Base metrics:

Base MetricsQ3 2024Q3 2025
Base Revenue ($USD Millions)$678.668 $848.553
Base Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$60.537 $77.607
Base Gross Margin %8.9% 9.1%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($USD Billions)FY2025$2.70–$2.85 $2.80–$2.90 Raised
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)FY2025$250–$270 $240–$250 Lowered (storm shortfall)
Net Capital Expenditures ($USD Millions)FY2025$75–$90 $75–$90 Maintained
Year-end Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA (x)FY2025—~3.3–3.4 (management expectation) New qualitative target

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ1 2025 (Prev. Mentions)Q2 2025 (Prev. Mentions)Q3 2025 (Current)Trend
Backlog/bookings/pipelineBacklog $4.5B; record $1.2B bookings; pipeline approaching $12B Backlog $5.3B; $3.0B H1 bookings; pipeline ~$14B Backlog ~$5.9B; $3.7B YTD bookings; pipeline ~$13B Strong and rising visibility
Storm vs baseAffirmed outlook; focus on core segments; storm unpredictable Lower storm vs prior-year comps impacting margins New “base” disclosures; planning excludes storm; storms only upside Shift to base metrics
Data center opportunitiesEarly pipeline mention ~20% of project pipeline; wins in distributed power/data centers >$50M campus projects in PA; $1.3B data center bids Growing focus
PHMSA Mega Rule/regulatory——Nine-figure steel pipeline replacement bid under PHMSA Tailwind
Fleet optimization/capital efficiency—SVP fleet hire; target 50/50 buy/lease; 15–25% efficiency gains $50M operating leases executed; 50/50 mix goal reiterated Execution ramping
Debt/refinancingNet debt/EBITDA 3.5x Extended revolver to 2030; TLB to 2032 Refinancing complete; improved flexibility, rates; leverage to ~3.3–3.4x YE Balance sheet improving
US Gas seasonality/marginsWeather impacted early; margins recovering Margins improving; seek predictable performance Seasonality fix a priority; leadership additions (US Gas President) Improving execution

Management Commentary

  • “We delivered record revenue for the quarter, improved our base profitability… adjusted net income of $16.7 million” — Christian Brown (CEO) .
  • “Q3 bookings of approximately $815 million… backlog reached a record high of approximately $5.9 billion… pipeline about $13 billion” — CEO .
  • “Line of sight to double-digit revenue growth in 2026” — CEO .
  • “Adjusted EBITDA was $75.2 million… notable in Q3 was $8.2 million… related to debt refinancing” — Greg Izenstark (CFO) .
  • “Non-union electric… gross profit margin… 7.1%… primary driver of margin pressure… ramping crews… margins improved in October” — CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Storm-driven guidance revision: the entire $15M decline in adjusted EBITDA guidance vs prior was storm-related; split ~60/40 between Q3 and Q4 .
  • Non-union electric margins: ramp impacts expected to normalize by year-end; October already showed improvement .
  • Pricing/margins on bids and MSAs: project-based (e.g., data centers) carry higher margins than MSAs; company now positioned to raise bid margins selectively .
  • No storm embedded in 2026 outlook: planning anchored on base business; storm would be upside .
  • Pipeline mix: $3.0B near-term decisions ($1.7B bids; ~$1.3B MSAs, ~85% renewals); ~60% electrical / ~40% gas .

Estimates Context

How results compared to S&P Global consensus:

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)Actual: 550.081 vs Consensus: 537.637*Actual: 724.052 vs Consensus: 702.353*Actual: 850.044 vs Consensus: 758.472*
Adjusted/Primary EPS ($USD)Actual: -0.12 vs Consensus: -0.148*Actual: 0.19 vs Consensus: 0.242*Actual: 0.19 vs Consensus: 0.293*
EBITDA/Adj. EBITDA ($USD Millions)Actual: 24.228 vs Consensus: 29.185*Actual: 71.840 vs Consensus: 73.882*Actual: 75.213 vs Consensus: 85.175*
  • Q3 2025: Revenue beat; adjusted EPS and adjusted EBITDA missed; topline strength offset by lower-margin mix (less storm) and ramp costs in non-union electric .
  • Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Mix matters: strong base growth drove a material revenue beat, but profitability lagged expectations due to storm shortfall and crew ramp; watch margin normalization in non-union electric into Q4 and early 2026 .
  • Guidance reset: revenue raised ($2.80–$2.90B) while EBITDA lowered ($240–$250M) entirely on storm; base trajectory remains intact—view any storm activity as upside .
  • Backlog and pipeline support 2026 growth: record ~$5.9B backlog and ~$13B pipeline, including data center and PHMSA opportunities, underpin management’s double-digit revenue outlook for 2026 .
  • Balance sheet flexibility improving: refinancing extended maturities and modestly reduced rates; year-end net leverage targeted at ~3.3–3.4x on expected Q4 free cash flow .
  • Capital raise post-earnings: $160M offering and $75M private placement provide optionality (acquisitions, debt repayment); monitor dilution vs strategic deployment .
  • Segment watchlist: Canadian Gas margins remain a bright spot (21.9%); Union Electric margins steady; Non-Union Electric recovery is key for consolidated margin uplift .
  • Tactical positioning: management signaled raising bid margins where competitive environment allows (project work higher than MSAs); a positive mix shift could lift 2026 profitability .

Additional Notes and Sources

  • Q3 2025 8-K earnings press release (full content, including segments and non-GAAP reconciliations) .
  • Q3 2025 earnings call transcript (prepared remarks and Q&A detail) .
  • Prior quarters: Q2 2025 8-K and call ; . Q1 2025 8-K .
  • Other relevant Q3 press releases: offering launch and pricing .